The prediction-market scene had a rough week. New York’s Attorney General filed suit against Polymarket, arguing the exchange operates as an unlicensed gambling venue for US residents, and asking a state court to shut down access. Whether or not that plays out, the ripple effect is already here: every prediction-market user we know is looking at their bookmarks and wondering which platform survives the year.
Manifold Markets was the play-money default long before the Polymarket news, and it’s still the low-stakes gateway to the whole scene. But it isn’t the only place to forecast an event. These are seven Manifold Markets alternatives to keep in the browser bookmarks tonight, sorted from most familiar to most experimental.
Quick comparison
| Platform | Best for | Real money | Regulation | Standout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | US real-money contracts inside the CFTC framework | Yes, USD | CFTC-regulated | Only fully-regulated US real-money option |
| Polymarket | Depth on politics and world events | Yes, USDC | Non-US only after NY suit | Deepest orderbooks in the space |
| PredictIt | Long-running US political markets | Yes (capped) | CFTC no-action | Twenty years of political contract history |
| Metaculus | Forecasting community with a track record | No | N/A (research-focused) | Best calibration scoring on the list |
| Predict.fun | On-chain forecasting for crypto natives | Yes, on-chain | Non-US only | Zero-KYC on-chain exposure |
| Myriad Markets | Newer on-chain venue with sportsbook DNA | Yes, crypto | Non-US only | Sports-first UX |
| Limitless | On-chain venue focused on short-term events | Yes, on-chain | Non-US only | Fastest event settlement on the list |
Why people are shopping for a Manifold alternative
Manifold’s play-money model is deliberately low-stakes. Mana is fun and the community is smart, but you can’t withdraw earnings as anything but Manifold’s own charitable donation, which is by design. Anyone who wants a real payout has to look elsewhere.
The Polymarket suit changed the risk picture for US users overnight. Even before a ruling, geo-blocking and payments friction are climbing. Contingency planning is not optional if you rely on prediction-market signal.
Kalshi has been the CFTC-regulated answer for two years and is picking up ex-Polymarket volume this month. It’s now the default recommendation when a US resident asks where to trade real-money contracts.
Metaculus is where serious forecasters (and superforecasting research groups) live. It doesn’t do money at all, which is a feature if calibration and reputation are what you care about.
The on-chain venues (Predict.fun, Myriad, Limitless) sit outside the traditional regulatory frameworks entirely. If you’re already comfortable with an on-chain wallet, they’re the closest thing to a Polymarket replacement without the US legal exposure.
The alternatives
Kalshi – Best US real-money contract platform
Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated exchange for event contracts. USD deposits, event contracts on economics, politics, weather, and sports, and an orderbook that has grown fast on 2026 election cycle volume. It’s the safest legal answer for a US resident who wants real money on the line.
Where it falls short: Not every market Polymarket lists is here yet. Contract sizes and payouts are structured under CFTC rules, which some traders find restrictive compared to Polymarket’s freewheeling orderbook.
Pricing:
- Free account, standard exchange fees per trade
- vs Manifold: real money, regulated venue, smaller catalog
Migrating from Manifold: Register with a US bank account or debit card, browse the events list, place limit orders instead of the AMM-style bets Manifold uses.
Bottom line: Pick Kalshi if you’re a US resident and you want a legal way to put real money on real events.
Polymarket – Best depth for political and world events (non-US)
Polymarket still has the deepest orderbooks in the prediction-market world. The current suit is a US access issue, not a shutdown, and international users continue to trade. If you’re outside the US, this is where the biggest markets live.
Where it falls short: Actively contested legally in the US as of the September 2026 suit. Requires a Web3 wallet and USDC. Onboarding still surprises first-time crypto users.
Pricing:
- Free account; on-chain trading fees only
- vs Manifold: real-money, deepest markets, higher onboarding friction
Migrating from Manifold: Set up a self-custody wallet, deposit USDC through a supported bridge, use the AMM interface first before dropping into the orderbook.
Bottom line: Pick Polymarket for non-US traders who want the deepest liquidity on the biggest news events.
PredictIt – Best US political history
PredictIt has been running under a CFTC no-action letter since 2014 and still hosts the longest continuous run of US political prediction markets. Position limits are strict ($850 per contract per user), which keeps whales out and skews the platform toward hobbyist and researcher use.
Where it falls short: Small contracts by design. Interface hasn’t changed much in a decade. Not every market lists that lives on Kalshi or Polymarket.
Pricing:
- Free account; small withdrawal fee and profit fee
- vs Manifold: real money in small stakes, US-legal, narrower catalogue
Migrating from Manifold: US only. Sign up, verify identity, place bets in dollar-denominated contracts up to the position cap.
Bottom line: Pick PredictIt if you specifically want US political markets with real (if capped) money.
Metaculus – Best for calibration and reputation
Metaculus is not a betting platform. It is a forecasting tournament and question repository used by public-interest research groups and superforecasters. There is no money at any point. Instead, you build a Brier score reputation over hundreds of forecasts, and the platform aggregates the crowd forecast on questions that governments and think tanks actually watch.
Where it falls short: No money. Slower feedback loop. Not what you want if the point is to move markets.
Pricing:
- Free
- vs Manifold: purer forecasting, no play-money layer
Migrating from Manifold: Register, follow a couple of active tournaments to see how questions are phrased, start with community-forecast questions where the base rate is clear.
Bottom line: Pick Metaculus when the goal is to prove (to yourself, or to a research employer) that you can forecast.
Predict.fun – Best on-chain venue for crypto natives
Predict.fun is the pure on-chain answer to prediction markets. Everything happens in a smart contract, there is no KYC, and settlement is automatic. The catalog leans toward crypto-native events (protocol launches, price levels, token TGEs) plus general politics and sports.
Where it falls short: Non-US only. Requires a Web3 wallet and gas awareness. Liquidity is lower than Polymarket.
Pricing:
- Free account; on-chain fees only
- vs Manifold: real money, on-chain custody, thinner liquidity
Migrating from Manifold: Connect a wallet on the supported chain, deposit a stablecoin, place limit orders on markets that already have volume.
Bottom line: Pick Predict.fun when you’re already comfortable on-chain and don’t want a centralised exchange in the loop.
Myriad Markets – Best sports-first UX
Myriad Markets brings the sportsbook interface pattern (bet slip, live odds ticker, quick cash-out) into the on-chain prediction market world. It’s the friendliest of the newer on-chain platforms for anyone coming from a mainstream sportsbook rather than crypto.
Where it falls short: Newer platform, smaller catalog outside sports. Not available in the US.
Pricing:
- Free account; per-trade on-chain fees
- vs Manifold: real money, sportsbook-shaped UX
Migrating from Manifold: Sign up with a wallet, deposit a supported stablecoin, treat it like a sportsbook interface for on-chain contracts.
Bottom line: Pick Myriad if a familiar sportsbook flow matters more than orderbook depth.
Limitless – Best for short-term event settlement
Limitless targets short-dated event contracts, sometimes settling within hours. The platform stays lightweight, is on-chain, and gets used mostly for token launches, sports outcomes, and short-window political events.
Where it falls short: Lower liquidity outside a handful of hot markets. Non-US only. Smaller team than the incumbents.
Pricing:
- Free account; on-chain fees
- vs Manifold: real money, faster settlement, thinner catalog
Migrating from Manifold: Connect a wallet, look for markets settling in the next 48 hours, keep position sizing conservative until you know the liquidity.
Bottom line: Pick Limitless for fast-turnaround event bets you don’t want to hold for weeks.
How to choose
Pick Kalshi if you’re a US resident and want a real-money platform that isn’t fighting a state attorney general.
Pick Polymarket outside the US for the deepest liquidity on major markets.
Pick PredictIt for capped US political-market exposure with a two-decade history.
Pick Metaculus if the goal is to prove calibration rather than move money.
Pick Predict.fun, Myriad, or Limitless for on-chain trading, choosing between them based on catalog breadth (Predict.fun), UX (Myriad), or settlement speed (Limitless).
Stay on Manifold when the point is community, side-project markets, and prediction practice without financial stakes.
FAQ
Is Kalshi legal in the US?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, which is the only currently unambiguous framework for real-money event contracts in the US.
Can I still use Polymarket in the US?
Polymarket has geo-blocked US IPs since 2022. The September 2026 NY suit is about US residents who use VPNs to access it. Legal risk is real for US users regardless of the eventual ruling.
Which prediction market is the largest by volume?
Polymarket by orderbook liquidity, Kalshi by real-money USD volume as of Q3 2026 and growing.
Are any of these open source?
Manifold’s core codebase and Metaculus’s forecasting engine are open source. Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and the on-chain venues are proprietary.
Do any support live sports betting?
Kalshi and Myriad Markets have the strongest sports coverage. Polymarket lists major events but is not sports-first.
